Reshaping Multilateralism: If a Village Floods in South Asia, Who Listens?

Reshaping Multilateralism è un nuovo podcast sull’intersezione tra cibo, clima, sicurezza e migrazione, realizzato dal team di Nexus25. Nel corso di questa serie, il team tratterà le ultime novità in materia di finanziamenti per il clima, disaccordi multilaterali, sfide per la sicurezza e altro ancora, con la partecipazione di esperti provenienti da ogni angolo del mondo.

Reshaping Multilateralism è una produzione del progetto Nexus25, un’iniziativa congiunta dell’Istituto Affari Internazionali e del Centro per il Clima e la Sicurezza finanziata dalla Stiftung Mercator e prodotta in collaborazione con storielibere.fm.

AffarInternazionali vi propone il secondo episodio della serie in cui Thin Lei Win porta gli ascoltatori nella regione più popolosa del mondo e più vulnerabile al clima: l’Asia meridionale. Dalle erratiche stagioni dei monsoni in India ai cicloni tropicali nelle Filippine, i politici e le popolazioni locali sono in prima linea con il cambiamento climatico, alle prese con gli impatti estremi del cambiamento climatico sui loro mezzi di sussistenza, sull’agricoltura e sulla sicurezza. Thin e gli ospiti di questo episodio discutono delle dinamiche del nesso regionale, delle opportunità di leadership politica, delle riforme necessarie per sbloccare i finanziamenti per il clima, della geopolitica e di altro ancora, nella speranza di catalizzare una maggiore resilienza climatica nella regione.

My name is Thin Lei Win, I’m a journalist specializing in food and climate issues, a member of the Nexus25 team, and one of your hosts. This is “Reshaping Multilateralism”, a podcast at the intersection of food, climate, security, and migration from the team at Nexus25. We’ll cover the latest in climate finance, multilateral disagreements, security challenges, and more – featuring experts from every corner of the globe. We will ask our guests to share their lived experiences in contexts most impacted by climate change, stories from their time working in government and international organizations, and their assessments of where leaders should go from here.

It was November 2013 and the Philippines was just hit by one of the largest and most destructive tropical storms ever recorded. As I walked down the plane that brought me and a few of my colleagues plus dozens of aid workers to Tacloban City, one of the hardest hit areas, all I could see were hundreds of exhausted faces.

Most were locals, holding tightly to whatever possessions they managed to salvage and hoping to get to somewhere safer. A few were there to welcome family members who brought much-needed food, water, and other essential items with them.

Typhoon Haiyan – known locally as Super Typhoon Yolanda – devastated many towns and cities. It affected an estimated 16 million people, displaced 4 million, and killed more than 6,000.

I was there in the immediate aftermath and went back twice more. I visited some of the hardest-hit towns and villages and witnessed first hand the terrible destruction, the ensuing increase in hunger and malnutrition, and the hard decisions families have to make on whether they should stay and rebuild or move away and start anew. I also saw amazing resilience, both at individual and community level.

Since then, many more climate disasters have wreaked havoc in South and Southeast Asia. In the summer of 2022, unprecedented floods in Pakistan inundated a third of the country. Affected communities are still struggling to rebuild their lives nearly two years on.

Scientists have warned that typhoons have become dramatically more destructive in Asia over the past 40 years and that global warming could increase their intensity and frequency. Across the continent, droughts are also becoming more frequent and severe and days that are extremely hot are becoming more common.

All of this has implications on food systems, political stability, and climate security. We know what’s in store for us. So what’s being done to lessen the impacts of the next super typhoon or the next megadrought?

TLW: In this episode, we’re turning our attention to South and South East Asia, where the extreme weather, migration, and the geopolitical impacts of climate change are combining to threaten the security of millions of people – and the region’s long-term stability. While the transatlantic alliance focuses on strategic competition and ongoing conflicts in the South China Sea, one of the world’s most populous regions is increasingly at risk from nexus challenges.

To discuss further, I’m joined by two experts living and working in the region:

Ameera Adil, the Senior Manager for Sustainability at one of Pakistan’s largest universities. Ameera is also a climate change and development consultant for organizations like UN women, and an environmental engineer by education; and
Debbie Aung Din Taylor, co-founder of the award-winning social enterprise Proximity Designs, which provides affordable products to Myanmar’s small scale farmers and is also a member of the global network Climate Action for Small Holders Coalition

Thank you so much to both of you for joining me today. To begin, I’ll ask you both: how are climate, security and migration intersecting in South and Southeast Asia, particularly in your home country? What are the top risks that you’re seeing in the region?

Thin Lei Win
country and what are the top risks that you are seeing in the region as a whole. Amira, perhaps I can start with you first. You can talk about Pakistan and South Asia.

Ameera Adil
Thank you, Tin. So when I look at climate security and migration as a triangle, I see that climate change can lead to migration and climate change can lead to security impacts. But with security and migration, they have a bilateral impact on each other, as in security issues can lead to migration and migration can internally to security issues.

In Pakistan, we see that violent extremism can be exacerbated by climate change and climate change impacts, which leads to an opportunity for non-state actors to abuse that situation. We’re also seeing a lot of water scarcity, which leads to water security issues, which can also be caused by unsustainable urban development and bad governance then furthers these issues. We are also having irregular rain, which impacts agricultural losses and food security issues.

Migrations aren’t neatly categorized as climate induced migrations. It’s homelessness, it’s loss of livelihoods, it’s lack of opportunities that become the end reason for migrations. And so when added stress on urban resources is felt by the people on top of unsustainable urban development, we see instances of migration.

We also have intergroup conflict, and when it becomes clear that the government isn’t intervening to improve the distribution of resources within these unsustainable urban areas, that causes further security risks in the region. Now it’s countries like Pakistan and other countries in South Asia that are struggling economically as well. We have pre-existing economic conditions that then feed into these existing security risks that we’re facing.

And so Dr. Agarwal talks about Cyclone Bhola, which happened in Bangladesh during the time of partition, so in the 1940s. Around 0.5 million people, 500,000 people died in Cyclone Bhola, and many died because of the inefficiency and neglect of the government to provide resources. And so in these floods of 2022 as well, we’re seeing a lot of those instances where government inefficiency or neglect, or lack of response, really feeds into more of these issues.

And so we can see more efficient people in the future, and we already are seeing a lot of them right now.

Thin Lei Win
Thanks for that, Amira. Yeah, so it’s essentially a combination of climate and extreme weather phenomenon, sort of exacerbating existing tensions, and also, I guess, showing that gaps in governance, right, from government response. Mahdebi, can I come to you next?

Obviously, Myanmar, where we both come from, is also grappling with political instability in addition to climate, food, and migration problems, right?

Debbie Aung Din Taylor
Right. Yeah, and I would say first, you know, the underlying problem has been for decades of sort of major resource extraction, natural resource extraction, both by powerful groups and governing groups, as well as these people, normal people, trying to survive with free natural resources. So that’s been the pattern, because there’s been so very little development.

It’s been an economy based on, you know, resource extraction. And the backbone of Myanmar is smallholder farming as well, families. But nowadays, there’s been increasing climate shocks.

There was a big cyclone in 2008, killing about 150,000 people. But in addition, there’s been a recent cyclone Mocha as well, that affected two and a half million. And so, on top of that, there’s been climatic changes, changes in rainfall patterns, and monsoons are getting shorter.

And there’s been also severe drought. And just this week, you know, in the central dry zone of the country, which is semi arid, it was one of the recorded as one of the hottest places in the world this week, over 47 degrees centigrade. So, you know, we’re seeing these hotter temperatures and monsoons decreasing.

And at the same time, you have watersheds that are increasingly denuded, and not able to control violent flooding down river. And, you know, there’s 25 million people who rely on farming for their livelihoods, at least. And so, they are very vulnerable.

And the rice bowl of the country, the Irrawaddy Delta, is especially vulnerable, because there’s been, you know, rising sea levels and saltwater intrusion into the paddy fields. And, you know, farmers, I just talked to a farmer last month, and he was saying that, you know, in the Delta, their yields are declining in half from what it used to be. And so, you know, yeah, I think the livelihoods are extremely disrupted.

And so, this does has been, you know, migration has been, especially out of these vulnerable spots, like the central dry zone, which is very arid. There’s always been migration out to different parts of the country for work. That’s been an ongoing thing for decades.

But now, with the civil war and fighting, this has just been exacerbated and accelerated. And the most recent military, you know, forced conscription has been, has basically pushed migration even more into Thailand and neighboring countries, young men fleeing. And so, this, you know, the security, the security problems and the weak governance has really contributed to major migration.

And I feel like the climate and the environment has been a silent victim. And just, you know, these, these other things have come to the forefront, and no one is really paying attention to this, the climate shocks and the environment. And so it’s, and I just wonder, you know, when the tipping point will be when there will be another disastrous shock.

Thin Lei Win
That’s a really great point. And I actually want to follow up on that. Of course, you know, the Nexus 25 project focuses a lot on solutions for collective action.

So that means policies that go beyond just the national and local governments to bodies like the UN, NATO and international financial institutions. But we also know, right, that there are limitations to multilateral and regional bodies, as they are today. I mean, we’ve witnessed these, these limitations in the debates around the loss and damage fund, you know, the geopolitical stagnation of the UN Security Council, and of course, you know, growing competition between multilateral agencies themselves.

So, you know, Madhavi, going back to what you just said, you know, how do you see ASEAN or other key multilateral institutions responding to the climate crisis, not just in Myanmar, but, you know, perhaps also within Southeast Asia? I mean, do you see any room at all for maneuvering? Or like you said, are climate issues just completely overshadowed by other, you know, tensions, whether regional or national?

Debbie Aung Din Taylor
Yeah, I mean, there’s been different efforts in the Mekong River Basin and coming together. And that’s one I know of. But I’m not too familiar with how well they’re working in terms of results on the ground.

And in terms of ASEAN, I do feel like, you know, so much of it is overshadowed by the geopolitics of the going on that, and then the climate change and environment is really…

Ameera Adil
For South Asia, we have regional bodies like SARC, which is the South Asian…

Thin Lei Win
What about, Amira, what about in South Asia, in terms of regional bodies, what does the status quo look like? And do you see any gaps in their responses?

Ameera Adil
…to come together to cooperate on anything? The best we do that I’ve seen so far is to take case studies of neighboring countries and maybe have them individually implement them in our own spaces. But that’s mostly on an academic level, or maybe a development level, but not so much on a political level.

But I do know that the Paris Agreement and NDCs, despite their shortcomings, have had a positive impact in Pakistan, at least in terms of sort of pushing for climate action and for pushing for having stringent goals and commitments set in within the country as well.

Thin Lei Win
Thanks, Amira. That’s really interesting. I think from both of you, what I’m hearing, you know, is the fact that despite the challenges posed by climate change to both these regions, and we’re already seeing the impacts of these, these, you know, climate impacts, right?

And yet, it’s still not at the top of the agenda, particularly for multilateral bodies, because they’re too busy with other tensions. Now, let’s get into the weeds a little bit, because one of the major challenges that our project works on is around climate finance, and particularly to make sure that, you know, we move beyond just mitigation to adaptation and loss and damage funds, right? So what I want to ask both of you is, considering the limited financial climate that we have today, how can we ensure that whatever financial resources there are actually get to South Asia, actually get to Southeast Asia and the countries that actually need it?

And from your perspective, are there any thematic issues or projects that could be or should be prioritized? Madhavi, do you want to go first? Because you’ve been working on, you know, the coalition, the cash coalition, particularly in terms of climate action for sm all farmers, which is not just in Myanmar, but actually around the world as well.

Debbie Aung Din Taylor
Yeah, I think, in terms of climate finance, whether it be, you know, just trying to harness carbon, voluntary carbon markets or climate development aid, I think what’s missing is an understanding of the, from people on the ground, for example, smallholder farmers, in order to help them transition to more regenerative agricultural practices that are good for the, sustainable for them. I feel like what’s missing is sort of the understanding at the farm level of the cost benefit and what subsidies are needed, what support is needed, where the gaps are in terms of, you know, if it takes two, three years to transition them, who’s going to pay for that. And also who’s going to pay for promoting and rep, you know, making sure these practices that we provide the appropriate extension support to smallholders to actually make it happen on the ground.

Someone needs to be able to support that. So that’s part of the financing as well. Financing the adoption of it, as well as financing, you know, for the farmers, they’re looking at their financials and understanding where the gaps are.

And so that’s what, as a coalition we’ve been trying to work on, is to have a portfolio and also looking at the, yeah, financial cost benefit analysis and really understanding so that these funding streams can be targeted and designed for, you know, people on the ground.

Thin Lei Win
And do you see, just as a quick follow-up, do you see things moving in the right direction? Do you see things improving or is, you know, climate finance, particularly on, you know, adaptation and loss and damage, still really, really challenging for developing countries to access?

Debbie Aung Din Taylor
Oh, I think it’s still very challenging. I mean, there’s a lot more being discussed now and it is fast emerging, but at the same time, you know, there’s a lot of complex issues that need to be worked out. And I think the most important thing is to be able to have representation where these discussions are happening and that voice of people on the ground who are actually on the front lines and what they need, that needs to be well understood and represented.

Thin Lei Win
Thanks, Madhavi. And Amira, I mean, right, the climate negotiations right after Pakistan floods, the, I think the representative from Pakistan made a very compelling case about how Pakistan is actually, you know, paying for other countries, essentially emissions, right? So it would be great to hear from you what you think are the gaps and how to make sure that countries like, you know, Pakistan get the resources it needs.

Ameera Adil
Credibility is a big issue. Accountability is a big issue. And understandably so.

So when some donor is putting in money in your country, you want to see the results through that. So there’s two things to this. One, the adaptation projects can have inbuilt mechanisms for ensuring accountability that can also help the country and also the communities to report on accountability in a better way overall.

And then that project can end up being a source of ensuring a corruption-free, accountable sort of community-based mechanism. So that another problem is that development agencies, when they’re doing their projects in these countries, these projects are maybe five years long, 10 years long at most, and they’re not sustainable. Especially loan-based projects are not very sustainable.

And the government, when these donor agencies leave, these governments are not able to carry forward the projects and then all of that progress is sort of lost. So these are the two areas that we really need to be looking at. A third thing is that thematically teams need to be cross-cutting.

So I’ll give an example of educating girls and women. So according to drawdown.org, educating women and girls is one of the most effective solutions to climate change in the long run. And this is more on the mitigation side, but maybe also on the adaptation side.

But it’s not something that we’re really incorporating into the climate adaptation agenda as such. We’re looking at more nature-based solutions and things like that. So maybe having more cross-cutting themes across even women, peace, and security might help a lot more for countries like Pakistan.

And again, to highlight the loan-based projects are a big issue for Pakistan, again, because we lack the money to already put into development right now. And our economy doesn’t look like it’s going to get better anytime soon. So loan-based projects really don’t really help.

Resilience might even hinder resilience in the long run.

Debbie Aung Din Taylor
Yeah. And I would say, it sort of brings up the old question again of, you know, should we saddle lower resource countries with more debt, especially when, you know, they’re not the ones who are the biggest emitters. And so, yeah, that’s, again, that question of who is saddled with this debt.

Are these loans or, you know, for climate mitigation and adaptation, should they be loans or grants?

Thin Lei Win
Yeah, that’s a great point. And I think this is also an ongoing discussion, right? Slightly different from what I think Maya Motley and the Bridgedown, you know, agenda has been saying.

But it is this whole issue around debt and poor countries and this unfair burden, right? They’re already suffering from these climate impacts. And then to settle them, like Natavi said, with more loans to actually be able to adapt to it.

And I think that’s a great point. And I think that’s something that the loss and damage fund supposedly was supposed to address, but I don’t know to what extent, you know, the political will and the budget is there. I mean, Amira

I mean, do you want to add anything there from your experience?

Ameera Adil
It’s very well structured in terms of, you know, it’s not very well strengthened in the beginning. So I don’t know how much we’re going to be able to strengthen it.

Thin Lei Win
Yeah. Well, last question. And we’ve talked quite a lot about the challenges, the problems, and the things that need improving.

So let’s, you know, sort of like flip the question a little bit. And I’m going to ask you both to dream big. Think of the, you know, what we can achieve.

Are there any creative solutions that policymakers and, you know, these multilateral institutions aren’t paying attention to? If you were in charge, what would you do? What would be the changes you would make?

Ameera Adil
Amira, perhaps I’ll start with you. Pakistan, if I speak for Pakistan, and South Asia in general, we do have a lot of good policy and good frameworks in place. But they’re not really implemented.

And then the accountability question comes into place. And so if I had to, if I had control of this country, or even this region for a day, the thing that I would focus on would be accountability, because that would solve so many of our issues to begin with. And I think that it’s more of a South Asian problem in general, and maybe even other countries or so, but it really hinders development in general.

So again, any adaptation finance ingrained with strengthening on ground accountability would really help. Hmm.

Thin Lei Win
That’s great. Madhavi?

Debbie Aung Din Taylor
There’s two streams of thought. One is, I think, in general, I think, especially multilaterals, and if we’re trying to work cross-cutting sectors, that we really do need to have a radical mindset shift. And so that means, you know, having a collective mindset, which is very different from how any of our organizations have been operating.

And that’s why, you know, I’ve, we’ve become part of this coalition. Clearly, the poli- crises of our time are challenging individual organizations and agencies beyond their ability to respond, and everyone is feeling the pressure to come together to tackle these poli- crises. And I think everyone does understand that it’s not going to be a single agency or organization doing it.

That said, that really requires a radical mindset shift. And so it’s about, you know, getting out of our silos, and maybe, you know, and saying, you know, what I’m learning in building this coalition is that it’s very high risk, but also high rewards. And I think we don’t have any option but to do collective action.

And so that mindset requires, you know, focusing on the mission, and not the individual organizations. And it’s managing a network rather than an organization, which is really different. It’s about humility, and not a brand.

And so not competition, but radical collaboration. And it’s about building trust, and not control. And, and basically, making sure the representation is there too, when you build trust with people on the ground, and people we work with, and people implementing, treating them as peers and equals, who, who, and when to take a backseat, when they know better.

And also, lastly, just that we’re, it’s a constellation and not stars. So we’re part of a larger web of activity and an ecosystem. And it’s not just about, you know, our individual.

So that that does require at the organizational level, you know, really operating differently, maybe for the UN agencies to really have some radical reforms, and so on. But it, you know, I went to, I attended a regenerative Chicago in March. And actually, for the first time in multi sector, you know, there was private sector, PepsiCo, and all kinds of corporate supply chain people, as well as scientists, climate scientists, and regenerative agriculture, experts, and then nonprofit organizations, and government.

And for the first time, I had a sense that people are bigger than any one of us. And that was, you know, that gave me some hope. And then on the, on the practical side of implementation, I mean, I think, I think, you’re right, that Amira, that there’s lots of solutions already.

We’ve seen a lot of solutions on the ground that work in Myanmar for, you know, that are doing double duty in poverty reduction and climate mitigation. We have a no burn rice farming practice that we just introduced in the delta. And we had 15,000 farmers adopt in three, in three months.

So, you know, farmers are looking for, they know their caretakers of their soils, and they want to leave a lasting legacy as well for their future generations. And they’re part of the solution. So, I think there’s these practical solutions already out there that Drawdown, Project Drawdown has also talked about finding solutions that are doing, you know, win-win, double duty.

And, and in focusing, for us, we’re focusing on some of those emergency brake solutions, sort of turning off the tap of carbon emissions. And what can we do on the ground to, to, to get those replicated? So.

Thin Lei Win
Thank you.

Debbie Aung Din Taylor
I think the last thing I’ll say is that, for me, I think when the costs of not doing something are getting greater than, than doing it, then I think that’s when it may tip. For example, even the air quality issue across Southeast Asia and India with the crop burning. I mean, the air quality issue is just suffocating people in cities in Delhi and Bangkok.

And, you know, and yet it’s a public good and the costs are so high. And, and at some point, you know, someone, we all need to realize that we have to do something together.

Thin Lei Win
Yeah. And not just waiting for governments or multilateral institutions, even themselves, to actually start. Amira, I’d just like to give you an opportunity if you have any final thoughts.

Ameera Adil
Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, a lot of the intergovernmental organizations over here in Pakistan focuses a lot on electric vehicles and in terms of the transition. Whereas in Islamabad and Pakistan in general, what we really need is public transportation. So it’s just little things like this that I feel like there’s a big opportunity for IGOs and NGOs to sort of redirect what they’re already doing and make a bigger positive impact.

Thin Lei Win
Great. And I’m very happy that we’re going to sort of end the discussion with more uplifting thoughts on the fact that we already actually have solutions. We just need to implement them and make them accountable.

Thank you so much Ameera and Ma Debbi for joining us today. We read a lot about how nexus challenges are impacting the region, but often miss perspectives like yours from the field. We appreciate your expertise – and hope that regional leaders are listening to your insights and recommendations as they navigate this increasingly challenging geopolitical environment.

In the next episode of Reshaping Multilateralism, we’re headed back over to Europe to debrief June’s European Parliamentary elections, the first in several consequential elections for the transatlantic alliance this year. While the European Union has traditionally been a climate leader, recent fractures within the bloc – including violent farmers protests supposedly against climate reforms, spikes in support for right-wing parties, disagreements over the future of European defense, and more – threaten to derail its leadership at a critical time for the international community. This election will show if support for the EU remains strong – or sound the alarm on the future of European solidarity.

Next time, Nexus25 co-lead and Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome Nathalie Tocci and our expert guests will discuss how climate, security and migration are intersecting in Europe, the results of these elections, and what this all means for the future (and the continued unity) of the bloc.

Reshaping Multilateralism is a production of the Nexus25 project, a joint Center for Climate and Security/Istituto Affari Internazionali initiative funded by Stiftung Mercator in Germany. To learn more about nexus challenges and read our latest analysis, go to www.nexus25.org. Please remember to subscribe to Reshaping Multilateralism wherever you get your podcasts and see you next time.

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